A unified prediction of computer virus spread in connected networks

Lora Billings, William M. Spears, Ira B. Schwartz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

62 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We derive two models of viral epidemiology on connected networks and compare results to simulations. The differential equation model easily predicts the expected long term behavior by defining a boundary between survival and extinction regions. The discrete Markov model captures the short term behavior dependent on initial conditions, providing extinction probabilities and the fluctuations around the expected behavior. These analysis techniques provide new insight on the persistence of computer viruses and what strategies should be devised for their control.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)261-266
Number of pages6
JournalPhysics Letters, Section A: General, Atomic and Solid State Physics
Volume297
Issue number3-4
DOIs
StatePublished - 13 May 2002

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computer viruses
extinction
predictions
epidemiology
differential equations
simulation

Keywords

  • Computer virus
  • Differential equation models
  • Markov models

Cite this

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A unified prediction of computer virus spread in connected networks. / Billings, Lora; Spears, William M.; Schwartz, Ira B.

In: Physics Letters, Section A: General, Atomic and Solid State Physics, Vol. 297, No. 3-4, 13.05.2002, p. 261-266.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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