### Abstract

We derive two models of viral epidemiology on connected networks and compare results to simulations. The differential equation model easily predicts the expected long term behavior by defining a boundary between survival and extinction regions. The discrete Markov model captures the short term behavior dependent on initial conditions, providing extinction probabilities and the fluctuations around the expected behavior. These analysis techniques provide new insight on the persistence of computer viruses and what strategies should be devised for their control.

Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 261-266 |

Number of pages | 6 |

Journal | Physics Letters, Section A: General, Atomic and Solid State Physics |

Volume | 297 |

Issue number | 3-4 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - 13 May 2002 |

### Keywords

- Computer virus
- Differential equation models
- Markov models

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## Cite this

Billings, L., Spears, W. M., & Schwartz, I. B. (2002). A unified prediction of computer virus spread in connected networks.

*Physics Letters, Section A: General, Atomic and Solid State Physics*,*297*(3-4), 261-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0375-9601(02)00152-4