Analysis and Control of Pre-extinction Dynamics in Stochastic Populations

We consider a stochastic population model, where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a (Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin) WKB approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quantify the effectiveness of the control and agree well with numerical simulations.