Bias in aggregations of subjective probability and utility

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Subjective estimates of probability or utility are prone to two kinds of error: random and systematic (bias). The usual approach to reducing random error is averaging. How to reduce systematic error is not clear. This paper deals with the question of bias propagation when the estimates that are averaged are bias prone. Both simple and weighted averages are examined. The idea of using averaging as a bias reduction technique is explored. When the weights used in the averaging process are themselves biased, the random error in the average is also affected, possibly adversely. A balance has to be struck between bias reduction requirements and random error reduction requirements.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)621-627
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of the Operational Research Society
Volume43
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1992

Fingerprint

Random errors
Agglomeration
Systematic errors
Random error
Subjective probability
Bias reduction

Keywords

  • Aggregation
  • Bias
  • Error variance
  • Multiattribute utility
  • Subjective probability

Cite this

@article{dbdab08ba1894d63a6f89df8bfe85bc5,
title = "Bias in aggregations of subjective probability and utility",
abstract = "Subjective estimates of probability or utility are prone to two kinds of error: random and systematic (bias). The usual approach to reducing random error is averaging. How to reduce systematic error is not clear. This paper deals with the question of bias propagation when the estimates that are averaged are bias prone. Both simple and weighted averages are examined. The idea of using averaging as a bias reduction technique is explored. When the weights used in the averaging process are themselves biased, the random error in the average is also affected, possibly adversely. A balance has to be struck between bias reduction requirements and random error reduction requirements.",
keywords = "Aggregation, Bias, Error variance, Multiattribute utility, Subjective probability",
author = "Ravinder, {H. V.}",
year = "1992",
month = "6",
doi = "10.1057/jors.1992.87",
language = "English",
volume = "43",
pages = "621--627",
journal = "Journal of the Operational Research Society",
issn = "0160-5682",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
number = "6",

}

Bias in aggregations of subjective probability and utility. / Ravinder, H. V.

In: Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 43, No. 6, 06.1992, p. 621-627.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Bias in aggregations of subjective probability and utility

AU - Ravinder, H. V.

PY - 1992/6

Y1 - 1992/6

N2 - Subjective estimates of probability or utility are prone to two kinds of error: random and systematic (bias). The usual approach to reducing random error is averaging. How to reduce systematic error is not clear. This paper deals with the question of bias propagation when the estimates that are averaged are bias prone. Both simple and weighted averages are examined. The idea of using averaging as a bias reduction technique is explored. When the weights used in the averaging process are themselves biased, the random error in the average is also affected, possibly adversely. A balance has to be struck between bias reduction requirements and random error reduction requirements.

AB - Subjective estimates of probability or utility are prone to two kinds of error: random and systematic (bias). The usual approach to reducing random error is averaging. How to reduce systematic error is not clear. This paper deals with the question of bias propagation when the estimates that are averaged are bias prone. Both simple and weighted averages are examined. The idea of using averaging as a bias reduction technique is explored. When the weights used in the averaging process are themselves biased, the random error in the average is also affected, possibly adversely. A balance has to be struck between bias reduction requirements and random error reduction requirements.

KW - Aggregation

KW - Bias

KW - Error variance

KW - Multiattribute utility

KW - Subjective probability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0026883237&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1057/jors.1992.87

DO - 10.1057/jors.1992.87

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0026883237

VL - 43

SP - 621

EP - 627

JO - Journal of the Operational Research Society

JF - Journal of the Operational Research Society

SN - 0160-5682

IS - 6

ER -