Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases

Ira B. Schwartz, Leah B. Shaw, Derek A.T. Cummings, Lora Billings, Marie Mccrary, Donald S. Burke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

36 Scopus citations

Abstract

Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.

Original languageEnglish
Article number066201
JournalPhysical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Volume72
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2005

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