Abstract
This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.
| Original language | Portuguese |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 11-40 |
| Number of pages | 30 |
| Journal | Dados |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1 Jan 2006 |
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Keywords
- Economic indicators
- Election preferences
- Presidential elections
Cite this
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Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto : As eleições presidenciais Brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002. / Rennó, Lucio; Spanakos, Tony.
In: Dados, Vol. 49, No. 1, 01.01.2006, p. 11-40.Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › Research › peer-review
TY - JOUR
T1 - Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto
T2 - As eleições presidenciais Brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
AU - Rennó, Lucio
AU - Spanakos, Tony
PY - 2006/1/1
Y1 - 2006/1/1
N2 - This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.
AB - This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.
KW - Economic indicators
KW - Election preferences
KW - Presidential elections
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33750194932&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002
DO - 10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002
M3 - Review article
VL - 49
SP - 11
EP - 40
JO - Dados
JF - Dados
SN - 0011-5258
IS - 1
ER -