Elections and economic turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, voters, and investors

Tony Spanakos, Lucio R. Renno

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-26
Number of pages26
JournalLatin American Politics and Society
Volume48
Issue number4
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2006

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election
investor
Brazil
candidacy
turbulence
stabilization
economics
voter
inflation
market
politician
Latin America
rhetoric
campaign
economy
policy
indicator

Cite this

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Elections and economic turbulence in Brazil : Candidates, voters, and investors. / Spanakos, Tony; Renno, Lucio R.

In: Latin American Politics and Society, Vol. 48, No. 4, 01.12.2006, p. 1-26.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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