Epidemic spread of influenza viruses

The impact of transient populations on disease dynamics

Karen R. Ríos-Soto, Baojun Song, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The recent H1N1 ("swine u") pandemic and recent H5N1 ("avian u") outbreaks have brought increased attention to the study of the role of animal populations as reservoirs for pathogens that could invade human populations. It is believed that pigs acquired u strains from birds and humans, acting as a mixing vessel in generating new influenza viruses. Assessing the role of animal reservoirs, particularly reservoirs involving highly mobile populations (like migratory birds), on disease dispersal and persistence is of interests to a wide range of researchers including public health experts and evolutionary biologists. This paper studies the interactions between transient and resident bird populations and their role on dispersal and persistence. A metapopulation framework based on a system of nonlinear ordinary dierential equations is used to study the transmission dynamics and control of avian diseases. Simplified versions of mathematical models involving a limited number of migratory and resident bird populations are analyzed. Epidemiological time scales and singular perturbation methods are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Our results show that mixing of bird populations (involving residents and migratory birds) play an important role on the patterns of disease spread.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)199-222
Number of pages24
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume8
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2011

Fingerprint

Influenza
Birds
Orthomyxoviridae
Viruses
Virus
Bird Diseases
Population
birds
Persistence
Animals
bird diseases
Swine
swine
Metapopulation
Singular Perturbation Method
pandemic
human population
Public Health
biologists
Pandemics

Keywords

  • Avian Influenza
  • Epidemic Models
  • Epidemiological Time Scales
  • Mixing Probabilities
  • Singular Perturbation Theory

Cite this

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Epidemic spread of influenza viruses : The impact of transient populations on disease dynamics. / Ríos-Soto, Karen R.; Song, Baojun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos.

In: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Vol. 8, No. 1, 01.01.2011, p. 199-222.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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