TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating the quarantine failure rate for COVID-19
AU - Li, Meili
AU - Yuan, Qianqian
AU - Chen, Pian
AU - Song, Baojun
AU - Ma, Junling
N1 - Funding Information:
This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771075) (ML), Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai, China (No. 21ZR1401000) (ML), State Scholarship Fund of China (CSC No. 201906635011) (ML), a Fundamental Research Grant for Chinese Universities (ML), Canadian Institutes of Health Research's Canadian 2019 COVID-19 Rapid Research Fund (JM), Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research's COVID-19 Research Response Fund (JM), and a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada Discovery Grant (JM). ML's work was carried out during the period of working as a visiting scholar at Montclair State University.
Funding Information:
This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11771075 ) (ML), Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai , China (No. 21ZR1401000) (ML), State Scholarship Fund of China ( CSC No. 201906635011) (ML), a Fundamental Research Grant for Chinese Universities (ML), Canadian Institutes of Health Research's Canadian 2019 COVID-19 Rapid Research Fund (JM), Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research's COVID-19 Research Response Fund (JM), and a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Canada Discovery Grant (JM). ML's work was carried out during the period of working as a visiting scholar at Montclair State University.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors
PY - 2021/1
Y1 - 2021/1
N2 - Quarantine is a crucial control measure in reducing imported COVID-19 cases and community transmissions. However, some quarantined COVID-19 patients may show symptoms after finishing quarantine due to a long median incubation period, potentially causing community transmissions. To assess the recommended 14-day quarantine policy, we develop a formula to estimate the quarantine failure rate from the incubation period distribution and the epidemic curve. We found that the quarantine failure rate increases with the exponential growth rate of the epidemic curve. We apply our formula to United States, Canada, and Hubei Province, China. Before the lockdown of Wuhan City, the quarantine failure rate in Hubei Province is about 4.1%. If the epidemic curve flattens or slowly decreases, the failure rate is less than 2.8%. The failure rate in US may be as high as 8.3%–11.5% due to a shorter 10-day quarantine period, while the failure rate in Canada may be between 2.5% and 3.9%. A 21-day quarantine period may reduce the failure rate to 0.3%–0.5%.
AB - Quarantine is a crucial control measure in reducing imported COVID-19 cases and community transmissions. However, some quarantined COVID-19 patients may show symptoms after finishing quarantine due to a long median incubation period, potentially causing community transmissions. To assess the recommended 14-day quarantine policy, we develop a formula to estimate the quarantine failure rate from the incubation period distribution and the epidemic curve. We found that the quarantine failure rate increases with the exponential growth rate of the epidemic curve. We apply our formula to United States, Canada, and Hubei Province, China. Before the lockdown of Wuhan City, the quarantine failure rate in Hubei Province is about 4.1%. If the epidemic curve flattens or slowly decreases, the failure rate is less than 2.8%. The failure rate in US may be as high as 8.3%–11.5% due to a shorter 10-day quarantine period, while the failure rate in Canada may be between 2.5% and 3.9%. A 21-day quarantine period may reduce the failure rate to 0.3%–0.5%.
KW - Epidemic curve
KW - Exponential growth rate
KW - Incubation period
KW - Quarantine
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85111312123&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.idm.2021.07.002
DO - 10.1016/j.idm.2021.07.002
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85111312123
SN - 2468-0427
VL - 6
SP - 924
EP - 929
JO - Infectious Disease Modelling
JF - Infectious Disease Modelling
ER -
