External debt and oil prices. Some prospects for oil-exporting developing countries

This article examines the extent to which selected oil-exporting developing countries can continue to depend on their major source of hard currency earnings to service their external debt in particular and to promote the process of future economic growth in general. The four countries under consideration are: Ecuador, Egypt, Indonesia and Nigeria. Incorporated into the study are alternative sets of assumptions regarding future oil output, export potential, future oil prices, external debt levels and future interest rates. Both the effects of the recently formulated Baker Plan and the collapse of oil prices are examined within this context.