Impact of Fraxinus snag fall on electric distribution and infrastructure stability: An empirical analysis

With increasing climate variability and the movement of exotic pests and diseases, the rate of forest mortality has become an issue of global concern. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), as one such pest, is causing the mass mortality of ash trees, Fraxinus spp., thus leading to an ongoing surge in the number of snags across North America. Snags are dead-standing trees that pose an extant threat to nearby infrastructure and buildings. In this article, we evaluate the impacts which snags pose to electrical distribution infrastructure. New Jersey, a state with a high degree of urbanization, has an extensive electric grid located in forested areas. New Jersey is currently in the process of upgrading the electric distribution network, which will increase the height of electric distribution lines to increase resiliency and potential capacity. This article demonstrates a yearly risk assessment methodology for Fraxinus snags using an integrated GIS, differential equation, and applied regression model framework under two distribution network parameterizations. The framework is applied to three northern New Jersey counties (Warren, Sussex, and Morris), which are managed by one utility, New Jersey Central Power and Light, and which are home to most of New Jersey's Fraxinus trees.