Instabilities in multiserotype disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement

Lora Billings, Ira B. Schwartz, Leah B. Shaw, Marie McCrary, Donald S. Burke, Derek A.T. Cummings

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

36 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper investigates the complex dynamics induced by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in multiserotype disease models. ADE is the increase in viral growth rate in the presence of immunity due to a previous infection of a different serotype. The increased viral growth rate is thought to increase the infectivity of the secondary infectious class. In our models, ADE induces the onset of oscillations without external forcing. The oscillations in the infectious classes represent outbreaks of the disease. In this paper, we derive approximations of the ADE parameter needed to induce oscillations and analyze the associated bifurcations that separate the types of oscillations. We then investigate the stability of these dynamics by adding stochastic perturbations to the model. We also present a preliminary analysis of the effect of a single serotype vaccination in the model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)18-27
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Theoretical Biology
Volume246
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 7 May 2007

Keywords

  • Antibody-dependent enhancement
  • Dengue
  • Epidemics
  • Multiserotype
  • Vaccine

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