Modeling the impact of newcastle disease virus vaccinations on chicken production systems in northeastern madagascar

Akshaya Annapragada, Cortni Borgerson, Sarah Iams, M. Ando Ravelomanantsoa, Graham C. Crawford, Marika Helin, Evelin Jean Gasta Anjaranirina, Hervet J. Randriamady, Christopher D. Golden

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Chickens are a key source of nutrition for rural Malagasy communities. Due to high endemic rates of Newcastle disease, it remains challenging to raise sustainable chicken flocks as a consistent food source. Here, we explore the impact of triannual Newcastle disease virus (NDV) vaccine interventions on the growth and herd immunity acquisition of Malagasy chicken flocks. Between 2011 and 2018 we collected longitudinal data to assess the population dynamics of chicken populations in remote Malagasy communities. In 2016, we launched a pilot campaign for vaccination in six rural communities to determine the impacts on chicken survivorship and productivity. We used these data to specify a mathematical model of realistic Malagasy chicken population dynamics under a triannual vaccination regime. The mathematical model represents an extension to conventional SIR models that allows for modeling the impact of specific vaccinations on chicken flock dynamics, rather than estimation of parameters. Understanding chicken population dynamics is important for realizing the potential for domestic chicken flocks to serve as sustainable food sources. The results suggested that vaccination coverage of at least ∼40% is necessary over 5+ years to achieve population doubling, while complete herd immunity may not be possible given the short duration of effectiveness of vaccination, and the high levels of births and deaths in the chicken flocks.

Original languageEnglish
Article number305
JournalFrontiers in Veterinary Science
Volume6
Issue numberSEP
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Sep 2019

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Madagascar
Newcastle disease virus
poultry production
Chickens
production technology
Vaccination
vaccination
chickens
flocks
Population Dynamics
Herd Immunity
population dynamics
Rural Population
Theoretical Models
mathematical models
Newcastle Disease
Food
Immunization Programs
Newcastle disease
rural communities

Keywords

  • Animal-source foods
  • Food security
  • Malnutrition
  • Poultry
  • Sustainable agriculture
  • Vaccination

Cite this

Annapragada, Akshaya ; Borgerson, Cortni ; Iams, Sarah ; Ravelomanantsoa, M. Ando ; Crawford, Graham C. ; Helin, Marika ; Anjaranirina, Evelin Jean Gasta ; Randriamady, Hervet J. ; Golden, Christopher D. / Modeling the impact of newcastle disease virus vaccinations on chicken production systems in northeastern madagascar. In: Frontiers in Veterinary Science. 2019 ; Vol. 6, No. SEP.
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Annapragada, A, Borgerson, C, Iams, S, Ravelomanantsoa, MA, Crawford, GC, Helin, M, Anjaranirina, EJG, Randriamady, HJ & Golden, CD 2019, 'Modeling the impact of newcastle disease virus vaccinations on chicken production systems in northeastern madagascar', Frontiers in Veterinary Science, vol. 6, no. SEP, 305. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2019.00305

Modeling the impact of newcastle disease virus vaccinations on chicken production systems in northeastern madagascar. / Annapragada, Akshaya; Borgerson, Cortni; Iams, Sarah; Ravelomanantsoa, M. Ando; Crawford, Graham C.; Helin, Marika; Anjaranirina, Evelin Jean Gasta; Randriamady, Hervet J.; Golden, Christopher D.

In: Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol. 6, No. SEP, 305, 01.09.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Crawford, Graham C.

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