Nonfuel minerals projections - Why they were wrong

This article revisits global projections made in 1981 of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The objectives here are to quantify the diferences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 nonfuel minerals covered in the earlier study. An attempt is then made to attribute these large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand - income, technological, regulatory and other policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals covered are aluminum, copper, iron, mercury nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin.