Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

Ira B. Schwartz, Lora Billings, Mark Dykman, Alexandra Landsman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

37 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberP01005
JournalJournal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment
Volume2009
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 6 May 2009

Fingerprint

Stochastic Epidemic Models
Extinction
extinction
vaccines
Vaccine
Epidemic Model
schedules
Schedule
Bifurcation Point
Critical Exponents
Display
Siméon Denis Poisson
Epidemic model
exponents
Scaling
scaling
Numerical Simulation
Prediction
predictions
simulation

Keywords

  • Fluctuations (theory)
  • Population dynamics (theory)
  • Stochastic processes (theory)

Cite this

Schwartz, Ira B. ; Billings, Lora ; Dykman, Mark ; Landsman, Alexandra. / Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models. In: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment. 2009 ; Vol. 2009, No. 1.
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Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models. / Schwartz, Ira B.; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra.

In: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, Vol. 2009, No. 1, P01005, 06.05.2009.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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