TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models
AU - Schwartz, Ira B.
AU - Billings, Lora
AU - Dykman, Mark
AU - Landsman, Alexandra
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed.
AB - We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed.
KW - Fluctuations (theory)
KW - Population dynamics (theory)
KW - Stochastic processes (theory)
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=65449185456&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1742-5468/2009/01/P01005
DO - 10.1088/1742-5468/2009/01/P01005
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:65449185456
SN - 1742-5468
VL - 2009
JO - Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment
JF - Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment
IS - 1
M1 - P01005
ER -