We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed.
|Journal||Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment|
|State||Published - 6 May 2009|
- Fluctuations (theory)
- Population dynamics (theory)
- Stochastic processes (theory)