TY - JOUR
T1 - Streamlining patients’ opioid prescription dosage
T2 - an explanatory bayesian model
AU - Asilkalkan, Abdullah
AU - Dag, Asli Z.
AU - Simsek, Serhat
AU - Aydas, Osman T.
AU - Kibis, Eyyub Y.
AU - Delen, Dursun
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Nearly half a million people died between 1999 and 2019 from overdosing on both prescribed and illicit opioids. Thus, much research has been devoted to determining the factors affecting the dosages of opioid prescriptions. In this study, we build a probabilistic data-driven framework that develops Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) models to predict patients’ opioid prescription dosage categories and investigate the conditional interrelations among these predictors. As this framework is rooted in the CDC’s prescription guidelines, it can be applied in clinical settings by focusing primarily on pre-discharge pain assessments. Following data acquisition and cleaning, we utilize Elastic Net (EN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) to identify the most important predictors. Next, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), and Random Under Sampling (RUS) are employed to overcome the data imbalance problem present in the dataset. A patient’s gender, income level, smoking status, BMI, age, and length of stay at the hospital are identified as the most significant predictors for opioid prescription dosage. In addition, we construct a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model, which reveals that the effect of smoking status and gender in predicting opioid prescription dosage depends on the patient’s income level. Finally, a web-based decision support tool that can help surgeons better assess and prescribe appropriate opioid dosages for patients is built.
AB - Nearly half a million people died between 1999 and 2019 from overdosing on both prescribed and illicit opioids. Thus, much research has been devoted to determining the factors affecting the dosages of opioid prescriptions. In this study, we build a probabilistic data-driven framework that develops Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) models to predict patients’ opioid prescription dosage categories and investigate the conditional interrelations among these predictors. As this framework is rooted in the CDC’s prescription guidelines, it can be applied in clinical settings by focusing primarily on pre-discharge pain assessments. Following data acquisition and cleaning, we utilize Elastic Net (EN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) to identify the most important predictors. Next, Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), and Random Under Sampling (RUS) are employed to overcome the data imbalance problem present in the dataset. A patient’s gender, income level, smoking status, BMI, age, and length of stay at the hospital are identified as the most significant predictors for opioid prescription dosage. In addition, we construct a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model, which reveals that the effect of smoking status and gender in predicting opioid prescription dosage depends on the patient’s income level. Finally, a web-based decision support tool that can help surgeons better assess and prescribe appropriate opioid dosages for patients is built.
KW - Interpretable AI
KW - LIME
KW - Opioid prescription
KW - Tree augmented naïve bayes
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85176781966&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10479-023-05709-4
DO - 10.1007/s10479-023-05709-4
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85176781966
SN - 0254-5330
JO - Annals of Operations Research
JF - Annals of Operations Research
ER -