TY - JOUR
T1 - The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat
AU - Morelli, Toni Lyn
AU - Smith, Adam B.
AU - Mancini, Amanda N.
AU - Balko, Elizabeth A.
AU - Borgerson, Cortni
AU - Dolch, Rainer
AU - Farris, Zachary
AU - Federman, Sarah
AU - Golden, Christopher D.
AU - Holmes, Sheila M.
AU - Irwin, Mitchell
AU - Jacobs, Rachel L.
AU - Johnson, Steig
AU - King, Tony
AU - Lehman, Shawn M.
AU - Louis, Edward E.
AU - Murphy, Asia
AU - Randriahaingo, Hery N.T.
AU - Randrianarimanana, H. L.Lucien
AU - Ratsimbazafy, Jonah
AU - Razafindratsima, Onja H.
AU - Baden, Andrea L.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2020/1/1
Y1 - 2020/1/1
N2 - Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.
AB - Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85077150656&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x
DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85077150656
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 10
SP - 89
EP - 96
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 1
ER -