The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on European Union currencies: a high-frequency analysis

Mahmut Zeki Akarsu, Orkideh Gharehgozli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This article examines how the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war has affected the valuation of five European Union currencies: the Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, Czech Koruna, Swedish Krone, and Romanian Leu. Using high-frequency time series data and advanced statistical models, we analyze a 522-week period from 1 January 2013, to 24 February 2023, with 24 February 2022, as a key focal point. The Russia-Ukraine war had varying effects on the currencies of non-Eurozone countries. Poland, Hungary, and Sweden experienced significant impacts, while Czechia and Romania remained relatively stable. Our research also highlights the stability of the Euro as a reserve currency, which attracts investors during times of crisis and protects participating economies from currency fluctuations. Additionally, our analysis underscores the distinct impact of war on these currencies, influenced by their unique political, economic, and financial structures and strengths.

Original languageEnglish
JournalPolicy Studies
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 2023

Keywords

  • Bayesian
  • Europe
  • Exchange rate
  • War
  • currency

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