TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on European Union currencies
T2 - a high-frequency analysis
AU - Akarsu, Mahmut Zeki
AU - Gharehgozli, Orkideh
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - This article examines how the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war has affected the valuation of five European Union currencies: the Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, Czech Koruna, Swedish Krone, and Romanian Leu. Using high-frequency time series data and advanced statistical models, we analyze a 522-week period from 1 January 2013, to 24 February 2023, with 24 February 2022, as a key focal point. The Russia-Ukraine war had varying effects on the currencies of non-Eurozone countries. Poland, Hungary, and Sweden experienced significant impacts, while Czechia and Romania remained relatively stable. Our research also highlights the stability of the Euro as a reserve currency, which attracts investors during times of crisis and protects participating economies from currency fluctuations. Additionally, our analysis underscores the distinct impact of war on these currencies, influenced by their unique political, economic, and financial structures and strengths.
AB - This article examines how the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war has affected the valuation of five European Union currencies: the Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, Czech Koruna, Swedish Krone, and Romanian Leu. Using high-frequency time series data and advanced statistical models, we analyze a 522-week period from 1 January 2013, to 24 February 2023, with 24 February 2022, as a key focal point. The Russia-Ukraine war had varying effects on the currencies of non-Eurozone countries. Poland, Hungary, and Sweden experienced significant impacts, while Czechia and Romania remained relatively stable. Our research also highlights the stability of the Euro as a reserve currency, which attracts investors during times of crisis and protects participating economies from currency fluctuations. Additionally, our analysis underscores the distinct impact of war on these currencies, influenced by their unique political, economic, and financial structures and strengths.
KW - Bayesian
KW - Europe
KW - Exchange rate
KW - War
KW - currency
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85174607499&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/01442872.2023.2268543
DO - 10.1080/01442872.2023.2268543
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85174607499
SN - 0144-2872
JO - Policy Studies
JF - Policy Studies
ER -