The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914

LIGO Scientific Collaboration, Virgo Collaboration

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

140 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberL1
JournalAstrophysical Journal Letters
Volume833
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 10 Dec 2016

Fingerprint

LIGO (observatory)
merger
actuators
false alarms
thresholds
detectors
estimates
coalescence
rate
mass distribution
gravitational waves
coalescing
astrophysics
universe
statistics
configurations
detector

Keywords

  • black holes
  • gravitational waves
  • stars: massive

Cite this

LIGO Scientific Collaboration ; Virgo Collaboration. / The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914. In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. 2016 ; Vol. 833, No. 1.
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abstract = "A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M⊙ at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90{\%} credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90{\%} credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.",
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author = "{LIGO Scientific Collaboration} and {Virgo Collaboration} and Abbott, {B. P.} and R. Abbott and Abbott, {T. D.} and Abernathy, {M. R.} and F. Acernese and K. Ackley and C. Adams and T. Adams and P. Addesso and Adhikari, {R. X.} and Adya, {V. B.} and C. Affeldt and M. Agathos and K. Agatsuma and N. Aggarwal and Aguiar, {O. D.} and L. Aiello and A. Ain and P. Ajith and B. Allen and A. Allocca and Altin, {P. A.} and Anderson, {S. B.} and Anderson, {W. G.} and K. Arai and Araya, {M. C.} and Arceneaux, {C. C.} and Areeda, {J. S.} and N. Arnaud and Arun, {K. G.} and S. Ascenzi and G. Ashton and M. Ast and Aston, {S. M.} and P. Astone and P. Aufmuth and C. Aulbert and S. Babak and P. Bacon and Bader, {M. K.M.} and Baker, {P. T.} and F. Baldaccini and G. Ballardin and Ballmer, {S. W.} and Barayoga, {J. C.} and Barclay, {S. E.} and Barish, {B. C.} and D. Barker and F. Barone and B. Barr",
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The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914. / LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration.

In: Astrophysical Journal Letters, Vol. 833, No. 1, L1, 10.12.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914

AU - LIGO Scientific Collaboration

AU - Virgo Collaboration

AU - Abbott, B. P.

AU - Abbott, R.

AU - Abbott, T. D.

AU - Abernathy, M. R.

AU - Acernese, F.

AU - Ackley, K.

AU - Adams, C.

AU - Adams, T.

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AU - Adhikari, R. X.

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AU - Aggarwal, N.

AU - Aguiar, O. D.

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AU - Ajith, P.

AU - Allen, B.

AU - Allocca, A.

AU - Altin, P. A.

AU - Anderson, S. B.

AU - Anderson, W. G.

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AU - Araya, M. C.

AU - Arceneaux, C. C.

AU - Areeda, J. S.

AU - Arnaud, N.

AU - Arun, K. G.

AU - Ascenzi, S.

AU - Ashton, G.

AU - Ast, M.

AU - Aston, S. M.

AU - Astone, P.

AU - Aufmuth, P.

AU - Aulbert, C.

AU - Babak, S.

AU - Bacon, P.

AU - Bader, M. K.M.

AU - Baker, P. T.

AU - Baldaccini, F.

AU - Ballardin, G.

AU - Ballmer, S. W.

AU - Barayoga, J. C.

AU - Barclay, S. E.

AU - Barish, B. C.

AU - Barker, D.

AU - Barone, F.

AU - Barr, B.

PY - 2016/12/10

Y1 - 2016/12/10

N2 - A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M⊙ at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.

AB - A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9 × 10-6 yr-1, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2 × 10-7. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m1, m2 ) = ( 36-4 +5, 29-4 +4 ) M⊙ at redshift = z = 0.09-0.04 +0.03 (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2-53 Gpc-3 yr-1 (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13-600 Gpc-3yr-1 depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2-600 Gpc-3 yr1.

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