Understanding Private Equity Fund Performance and Survivability: Insights from Multimodel Analyses of Structural Drivers

This article offers an integrated analysis of private equity fund performance and survivability, combining distributional analysis, regression modeling, and survival analysis. Using a dataset compiled from commercial and industry sources, the author examines how fund size, sector specialization, leverage, and geographic diversification affect both fund returns and longevity. Initial analysis of internal rate of return distributions reveals significant variability across fund sizes, with mid-sized funds exhibiting greater return stability. Regression results show that fund size and sector specialization enhance performance, while higher fees reduce net returns and leverage increases both returns and risk. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis identifies key milestones in fund life cycles, particularly around the ninth year, and Cox proportional-hazards modeling quantifies the impact of fund-specific factors on survival probabilities. Although proxies for market dynamics were used to address external risks, broader shocks remain an avenue for future research. Together, these complementary methods clarify how structural attributes influence PE fund performance over time, offering insights for both practitioners and academics.